The U.S, historically a magnet for top-tier global talent in artificial intelligence (AI), is set to become a net exporter of professionals with advanced expertise in AI in 2025.
This shift reflects a radical transformation in both global talent mobility and the AI industry itself.
Why is this happening? A combination of reduced federal science funding, shrinking job opportunities in the U.S and a sharp pivot towards “sovereign AI” are creating the perfect storm.
For the first time, nations such as India, the UK, and Germany will likely see a major influx of returning talent as the U.S selectively narrows its talent pipeline. Below, we dive into the data and break down the reasons and implications for this seismic shift in AI talent dynamics.
1. The U.S will lead the export of AI Talent
According to the data we’ve tracked on the movement of over 800,000 AI professionals globally, 275,000 of top AI Talent currently reside in the U.S, with 41 per cent originating from overseas. However, an alarming decline in federal science funding is creating an unfavourable climate for these professionals.
Inflows and outflows of top AI Talent in the U.S and India between 2010-2024
With fewer research grants and diminished public investment in STEM, the U.S is losing its competitive edge in retaining international talent. This will result in an exodus of AI talent in the coming year, with India, the UK, and Germany emerging as the primary beneficiaries as professionals return home.
For example, India, which has a burgeoning AI sector, is expected to see significant growth in its AI talent pool. Its workforce is increasingly recognised for its cost-competitive, high-quality contributions to research and development. Similarly, the UK and Germany are well-positioned to absorb this talent, particularly as both nations double down on AI frameworks and policies.
The global redistribution of AI talent could erode the U.S’ dominance in influencing AI innovation. For leaders in the sector, this underscores a need for vigilance and adaptability in planning global AI operations.
2. AI tools disrupting traditional hiring
Another factor accelerating the talent export trend is the rise of new AI tools that drastically reduce the need for large armies of software engineers.
Monthly Software Engineer hires of top 20 US AI companies
Monthly software engineer hires by the U.S’ top 20 AI companies once exceeded 3,000. Now, that rate has dropped to zero as organisations increasingly automate software development processes.
The result? Companies no longer face the capacity gaps they once relied on international talent to fill. With fewer job opportunities in the U.S, talent from overseas are less incentivised to stay, further amplifying the drain of talent.
This builds a concerning narrative for global talent seeking entry into the US market. If opportunities dwindle, international professionals will increasingly direct their expertise to markets that actively encourage talent inflows.
3. The shift towards Sovereign AI
A key factor driving recent changes in talent trends is the growing focus on Sovereign AI. U.S companies now prioritise hiring top AI talent from overseas in disciplines critical to developing AI models, while scaling back reliance on overseas expertise for advanced technologies considered essential to national interests.
Areas of expertise of individuals moving to the U.S in 2017/18 to those of individuals moving in 2023/24
Our data reveals a stark difference in expertise areas among individuals moving to the U.S between 2017/18 and 2023/24. Inflows of talent with core AI skills have increased, supporting the development of foundational AI systems. However, there has been a significant decline in expertise entering the U.S in fields like silicon photonics and atomic layer deposition technology—key areas for the semiconductor and defence sectors, which are now central to Sovereign AI strategies.
This shift reflects a broader goal to reduce dependency on external supply chains and build self-reliance in critical industries.
What’s next?
If the US’ transition to a net exporter of AI talent by 2025 teaches us anything, it’s that the AI industry’s landscape is changing—not slowly, but rapidly.
Those who adapt to these shifts, whether by rethinking how they source talent, how they deploy teams, or which markets they prioritise, will emerge as leaders in the new era of global AI innovation.